Del malestar ciudadano a la decisión ciudadana
En el Gobierno están contentos. Estiman que les ha ido bien en las encuestas y, sobre todo, que la tendencia es al alza; de este modo, ellos tienen casi la certeza, que entrarán a un año electoral en mejores condiciones que las actuales para competir. En pocas palabras, están convencidos que han pasado los tiempos de las vacas flacas.
Tal vez la derecha exagera un poco al recuperar su conocida actitud arrogante ante cambios mínimos en los sondeos de opinión, pero en lo que no andan descaminados los líderes oficialistas es en percibir que el cuadro político está cambiando; sí están equivocados en pensar que los cambios sólo se relacionan con lo que a ellos los afecta. Lo que estamos experimentando son cambios muy generales, valdría la pena que dedicáramos unos minutos a reflexionar sobre ello.
Lo primero que podemos constatar es el agotamiento del envión inicial de manifestaciones y protestas. El 2011 fue un año de amplia movilización ciudadana contra los detentores del poder, del tipo que sea, en los distintos ámbitos. La nota común ha sido la desconfianza en los poderosos y el reconocimiento del ciudadano común como un actor presente, opinante e influyente.
Algunos se apresuraron en anunciar con trompetas la llegada de nuevos tiempos y el fin del modelo vigente por la crisis de representatividad que se evidenciaba, y, en realidad pudo ser. No dispongo de más pruebas que mi convicción, pero tengo el convencimiento que, bien conducidos y con un programa claro de acciones, existió un período corto en el que se pudo cambiar las reglas del juego político. La convocatoria a un plebiscito ciudadano sí era posible, no habría sido vinculante pero hubiera sido contundente.
Pero lo que se necesitaba para que este algo tan sin precedentes se concretara era la presencia de un liderazgo extraordinario y ese, sin duda, estuvo ausente. Esta ha sido la otra cara de la medalla. Este fue un movimiento encabezado por voceros no por conductores, dotados de demandas, no de programas, capaz de manifestaciones más que de concreciones.
Casi no era posible que fuera de otro modo, casi. Los que desconfían de quienes han acumulado poder en el pasado, también desconfían de los que pueden acumular en el presente. Por eso las posibilidades de un cambio político perdurable se ahogan en las turbulentas olas de las asambleas sin fin.
Lo segundo, y esto es igualmente importante, se ha agotado la manifestación de una demanda, no la demanda misma. Hasta la demanda por algo nuevo puede hacerse vieja, hasta las demostraciones espontáneas de creatividad pueden hacerse rutinarias, y eso es lo que ocurrió.
De modo que a la bipolar derecha hay que decirle lo siguiente:
- Es cierto que ha pasado el peor momento, pero sólo porque el peor momento ha sido extraordinariamente bajo. Pasar de ser el presidente peor evaluado de América Latina al penúltimo lugar no es motivo de satisfacción profunda.
- El Gobierno se puede recuperar, sin embargo, lo más probable es que llegue a una medianía sin gusto a nada. Al Gobierno no le ha ido mal producto de un contexto adverso, sino de una administración inepta, es decir que la fuente de sus males tiende a reproducir las dificultades una y otra vez.
- El objetivo real es prepararse para un buen desembarco de La Moneda como el escenario más realista. Este ha sido un intento fallido de entregar un buen gobierno al país, y los errores se pagan.
- Por eso, se puede reconocer que el comportamiento real de la Alianza en el poder (desde el discurso duro hasta el despido de funcionarios identificados con la oposición) es la reconquista del voto duro de la derecha, que en Chile no es poco. Es lo que permite mantener la presencia parlamentaria que sigue siendo “la especialidad de la casa”.
El cambio de comportamiento colectivo ya se ha verificado en Chile. Sus manifestaciones pueden cambiar, pero no hay vuelta atrás. Lo que parece permear la conciencia de muchos es que las manifestaciones, las protestas y las marchas no bastan.
Simplemente la política no se puede soslayar. Las prioridades y demandas ciudadanas han de expresarse en los programas políticos, en las leyes, en las políticas públicas, en los medios de comunicación, etc.; y por cierto, debe manifestarse en el voto ciudadano.
Por eso, lo que está pasando es que está disminuyendo el número de indecisos y de espectadores. Lo que está aumentando es el número de quienes toman opción, se definen ante las alternativas existentes y están dispuestos a conseguir cambios perceptibles en la situación actual.
Todo esto no son buenas noticias para la derecha. Lo que se viene en un primer momento es una concurrencia mayor a las urnas de lo que estamos acostumbrados. La aprobación de la inscripción automática tendrá un impacto rotundo.
Los parlamentarios falangistas, que han mostrado su preocupación por el efecto que tendrá en definitiva el voto voluntario, tienen toda la razón. Pero no la tendrán en un primer momento. Todavía la inercia es muy importante y, sobre todo, está claro que una mayoría quiere manifestar su opinión activamente. Por eso van a concurrir a las urnas.
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